Opening Night.............

After a GOY (Game of the Year) stinkbomb release, I have vowed to make amends. What better way to right the ship then to bounce back with the NBA opening night card? A wise man once told me "I can accept losing but I will not tolerate sitting out games. If there is a game to wager on, then do so".

Heat vs. Celtics. At first glance this line seems a little light at  Heat -6.  However, cemented deep into handicappers minds everywhere is the long six game struggle, that was last years NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Furthermore, defending NBA champions are just 2-8 against the number in their last ten openers.  For those looking to make a case for the Celtics, it appears they have found one.

Beware. While Rondo presents a matchup nightmare for Miami (along with almost every other team), the rest of his Celtics teammates are coasting on fumes. Without the services of Ray Allen, who is incidentally playing for the Heat, Boston will have more issues trying to run their offensive sets. As of now their best shooter is Kevin Garnett. While the Celtics remain a proud team with Pierce and the aforementioned Garnett, I cannot help but think that this could finally be the year where their age catches up with them.

After finally winning an NBA title that eluded him, expect to see a more relaxed Lebron James as he tries to lead the Heat in defense of their championship. During the past two years the Heat appeared at times to carry the burden of a team that was expected to win. In doing so, this was a squad that would play tight and allow lessor teams to compete with them.  This year is a different story. Two teams but only one is going in the right direction.

The Release.....Heat -6 over Celtics.

World Series.....

In an effort to be as succinct as possible, I will cut right to the chase. Tonight's 5 Star release is the Under 6.5 runs.  Here's the logic: the shadows around home plate will present nightmares for both teams since it is a 5pm start pacific time. Verlander has been unhittable this post season, so this extra advantage should keep the Giants' offense contained.  Conversely, the Tigers bats have been rested for a week now and while Zito is a wildcard, he has pitched very well this post season. Take the under and hope for a 3-2 final score.

Game of the Year....

In an unprecedented move, we at Propick Sports are releasing our NFL GOY (Game of the Year), on a Tuesday afternoon.  Why? Two reasons. First off, this line will probably move by weeks end so it is imperative to lock the spread in now. Furthermore, due to contractual demands I will be on the road for the next few days.  Regardless of the reason, remember that "when I throw you a blank check, do not question my reason for doing so".

Atlanta Falcons. After jumping out of the gate with an impressive 6-0 record, the Falcons have been  anointed by most pundits as the best team in the NFL.  At the very least, they have been the most consistent. With a revamped defense, a quarterback playing at the top of his game, and clutch come from behind wins, the Falcons have managed to impress even the most cynical sports handicapper. Factor in a breakout year from wide receiver Julio Jones and the Falcons are an absolute nightmare for opposing defensive backs throughout the league.

Eagles. Sitting at 3-3 the Philadelphia Eagles have once again managed to underperform expectations.  After a strong finish to last season (despite not making the playoffs), most experts believed that this would be the year that the stars would align in the city of brotherly love. No such luck thus far. What ails one of the most talented teams in the NFL?  Turnovers and weak offensive line play.  Can Michael Vick find lightening in a bottle and play like he did during the 2010 season?  One thing is certain at this point: the Eagles have more questions than answers.

The line.  With all the issues the Eagles are facing why are they a slight favorite?  After opening up at a pick em, the line is now anywhere from Eagles -1 to -2.5.  What Vegas is doing is begging the common man to take the 6-0 Falcons. With repeated comments regarding Andy Reid's future in Philadelphia, the common man cannot believe the gift which he has been given.  Who doesn't want to take the best team in the NFL getting points?

The Release.  Eagles -2 over the Falcons. This is the greatest example of a "hold your nose and buy em" philosophy.  After running several scenarios via our proprietary models, the Eagles came out ahead with several strong trends supporting them in this matchup. This is a must win for the Eagles and coming off a bye week under Andy Reid, history suggests the Eagles will get the job done. Furthermore, Atlanta is the softest 6-0 this league has ever known. This is a classic case of backing a desperate team at home.

Lucky Seven?

As we brace ourselves for tonight's National League Championship Series game seven between the Giants and the Cardinals, the consensus appears to be shifting towards the Cards. Despite blowing a commanding 3-1 series lead, it has become a foregone conclusion that the Cardinals will find a way to win this game. This is the same Cardinals team that battled all the way back after spotting the Nationals a 6-0 lead in the deciding game five of the Division Series.  Furthermore, these are the defending World Series Champions, so their respect is well deserved.

While the Giants have matched their opponent so far this playoff season, with a dramatic three game sweep of the Reds on the road after losing their first two games at home, they appear to be winning through sheer will alone. Although the Giants have a formidable pitching staff, their offense consistently relies on role players delivering in the clutch. Unlike the Cardinals, there are not a lot of hitters in the Giants lineup that strike fear into opposing pitchers (except Buster Posey). That said, this is exactly how the Giants won the 2010 World Series when they faced a far superior offense in the Texas Rangers.

The Release:  Giants -135 Over the Cardinals. The Giants are sending their ace Matt Cain to the hill tonight.  While the line suggests that the Giants are the clear favorite tonight, all you have to do is turn on sports radio and the overwhelming consensus suggests a Cardinals victory tonight. This is less about momentum than it is about a clear pitching advantage. Cain will pitch spectacularly tonight and the Giants will find a way to get themselves into the World Series. 

Angry Ducks..........

Tonight's marquee matchup in college football pits the third ranked Oregon ducks against the surprising Arizona State Sun Devils. Heading into tonight's clash the focus appears to be less about the game then about how Oregon is not ranked number two in the BCS polls. Despite having a far weaker strength of schedule than the Florida Gators, folks in Oregon are using the disrespect card and fervently believe they deserve to be ranked number two.  Furthermore, the consensus pick among the public is Oregon in a rout.

Oregon. The Ducks under coach Chip Kelly have become the "It" team in college football.  Featuring a wide open fast break offense, the Ducks have racked up points at will during the past few years. More impressively, even NFL teams have taken notice and made attempts to implement variations of this style into their own gameplans. Couple this with the recent snub by the BCS computers and you have one unstoppable team heading into Tempe, Arizona tonight.

Arizona State. Despite a potent offense led by quarterback Taylor Kelly, you will be hard pressed to find many believers, outside of the folks in Tempe. What most people overlook is the surprise stout defense, specifically the defensive line, which will play a pivotal role in trying to stop an Oregon offense that is averaging over 52 points per game this year.

Beware. Tonight's game for Arizona State is on par with a BCS bowl game. This is a team that rarely plays in primetime (ESPN televised game tonight), let alone against the top team in their conference.  With a full crowd and the home team catching 10 points, I will take the path less travelled and side wih the Sun Devils. The common man has spoken and collectively, they believe Oregon will win in a rout. I have been inside the mind of the common man and it scares the hell out of me.

The Pick: Arizona State +10 Over Oregon.

Coaching Icon.....

Due to scheduling issues, we at Propick were unable to provide our Monday Night release. Upon returning home I was shocked to see Denver trailing the  Chargers 24-0. Furthermore, with the line at a pick em, I figured that no amount of heroics from Peyton Manning could overcome a deficit like this.  What I failed to remember was: no lead is safe when it involves a Norv Turner coached team.

Norv.  In what could only be described as coaching tenure, the San Diego Chargers have routinely overlooked Norv Turner's shortcomings throughout the years.  While the argument in Norv's defense was always "his teams make the playoffs", what people failed to comprehend was how much talent was on the Chargers roster. In addition, the Chargers routinely got off to horrible starts and relied on strong end of season streaks against a very weak division to bail them out. After not making the playoffs these past two years, Norv is living on borrowed time. In a league where coaches are constantly placed under a microscope, good old Norv has managed to elude such occupational hazards.

Post Game. In a feeble attempt to dodge obvious criticism, Norv did what he does best: play dumb. When asked about the constant shortcomings during his tenure with the Chargers, Norv simply refused to answer the question. I must admit that despite the futility that is Norv and the Chargers, you have to respect a man who acts like he's bulletproof regardless of how bleak the situation may look.  Here's another public service announcement......Fade the Chargers for the balance of this NFL season. Eventually Norv will be culpable for the Charger's collective failures.  Following their bye week, start taking the other side of Norv. This is another one of the gaming tenets that has proven to be successful throughout the years.

Tigers -175 over Yankees. We have seen this script before. The Yankees are shot and now face the best pitcher in baseball. If the series was tied at 1-1 or there was any sign of life up and down the Yankee lineup, I would think differently. However, this Yankees lineup acts like they just want the pain to end. Does anyone have faith in Arod at this point?  Is a defeated Nick Swisher going to all of a sudden heat up? As for Cano, after not getting a hit what makes anyone think he can hit Justin Verlander? The Yankees are a dismal 0-7 in their last seven playoff games as an underdog. Expect that trend to continue tonight.

Mea Culpa......

Last night saw the apex of my fustration.  After dominating every facet of the game, there was an uneasy feeling as LSU took only a nine point lead with five minutes to play. As the announcers flashed the stats on the screen, one would have expected this game to be a blowout-420 total yards for LSU and  171 yards for the visiting gamecocks.  That said, the LSU defense was hitting their stride and completely shut down South Carolina, with the exception of one drive early in the second half. So why was I so concerned?

Backdoor cover. No one likes to lose but find me a sports handicapper who has never fallen prey to the last minute meaningless score (which has no impact on the outcome of the game but only the spread) and I will show you a liar. As South Carolina opened their last drive in a multiple wide receiver set and LSU dropping back into prevent coverage, I knew this had all the trappings of a blown cover. Furthermore, laying 2.5 points with LSU, I realized that a touchdown by South Carolina would result in  LSU winning by only 2. Without fail, the Gamecocks marched down the field with a series of short completions, aided by a personal foul penalty, until it was fourth down and 17 yards to go on the LSU 22 yard line. If logic prevailed then South Carolina  would have kicked the field goal, since they needed two scores and would in turn focus on recovering the ensuing onside kick. No such luck. Coach Spurrier decided to fade conventional wisdom by throwing for a first down and as luck would have it.....First and goal from just outside the goal line. That was it...my obituary read: LSU 23 South Carolina 21.

No time like the present. Today's NFL contests feature a lot of interesting matchups and with the exception of the Falcons laying 9.5 over the Raiders, most of the lines are fairly tight.  On days like this, getting inside the mind of the common man is a simple task, just take all the home favorites. If only life was this easy.

Jets -3.5 Over Colts.  This line is begging you to take the Colts. Here is why you don't. First, the Colts are coming off an emotional win at home which saw veteran players turn back the clock to performances of yesteryear. The odds of veterans like Reggie Wayne duplicating such a feat is highly unlikely. Secondly, the Jets have no right to be a favorite against anyone, let alone by more than  a field goal.  This is the most common of logic.  The average Joe Schmoe is thinking "I bet this is a field goal game either way so with the line at + 3.5, I would be an idiot not to take the Colts".  Here's a public service announcement, most of my friends are using that logic, even the Jets fans.  Hold your nose and take the Jets.

Cowboys/Ravens Over 44.  Cowboys +3.5 Over Ravens. Two picks in one game.  While this is an anomaly, I feel very confident in both picks. With both the Ravens and Cowboys possessing a myriad of offensive weapons, the reason for this total being only 44, is a result of the public's overestimation of both defenses. The Ravens are nowhere near the defense they used to be but since this squad still has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed leading the way, the overwhelming consensus is that the Ravens win with their defense. Conversely, because Dallas has arguably the best pass rusher in the game, Demarcus Ware, their defense is viewed as a stalwart despite giving up tons of yardage on a weekly basis.  As for the straight play- Cowboys +3.5, its a contrarian play on what the public is thinking.

Check back later for the late game.....

SEC Game of the Year......

LSU -2.5 over South Carolina. In an effort to atone for my Fresno State Stink bomb this afternoon.
LSU applies very favorably following losses(cause they do not lose much). Conversely, the Gamecocks are in unchartered waters here. Following an emotional blowout win against Georgia last weekend, look for South Carolina to struggle on the road at death valley. If the line has moved from 2.5 to 3, then buy the hook.

Check back tomorrow at noon for the NFL Week 6 releases. Expecing a difficult week for the favorites.......

Help Me.....Help You

In an effort to be as succinct as possible, I will cut straight to the chase and release the winners.

Fresno State +7.5 Over Boise State. This is the classic overreaction matchup. In prior years Boise State would be laying 20 points, so upon seeing the line at only 7.5, the "common man" can hardly contain his emotions. However, much to the common man's chagrin, this is not the same Boise State team. Gone are: Kellen Moore, Doug Martin,etc.  and this years team feels more like a work in progress. Despite having a big edge playing at home, I expect this game to be closely contested and will gladly take the 7 and a hook.

Pittsburgh +3 Over Louisville. Weak conference, always side with the home dog, especially in early starts.

 Oklahoma -3 Over Texas. Mack Brown recruits like no one else.  Unfortunately his teams underachieve like no others. As bad as Bob Stoops' coached teams have played in big games, this  is my "lesser of two evils" release. If either team was playing a legitimate top 10 opponent, I would fade them. However, in this case give me the Sooners to win by at least a touchdown.

Remember.......

The Titans.  Following last weeks embarrassment, also known as the Titans @ Vikings, you cannot find many people who think tonight's game between the Titans and Steelers will be much of a contest. In fact, many of the same people who were convinced that the Texans would destroy the hapless Jets, can be overheard singing the praises of Big Ben and company. While all road favorites are not created equal, rule of thumb suggests treading lightly.

Pittsburgh. This line has moved from 5 to 6 as the public has voted and unanimously chosen the Steelers.
After getting blown out in 4 of their last 5 games, the Titans appear to have absolutely no shot against a Steelers team that is getting healthy after some early season injuries to some of their star players. Furthermore, the Steeler defense has successfully caused opponents to turn the ball over, something that the Titans struggle with mightily.

Titans. Despite an abysmal 1-4 record against the spread (ATS), their opponent is a different team away from home. The two losses that Pittsburgh has suffered this year have both been away from Heinz field (Broncos and Raiders). In both games, the Steeler defense got torched after jumping out to quick leads.  Furthermore, Pittsburgh is only 1-3 against the spread. Even though the Titans have played poorly, this is a one of their only opportunities to play in primetime and that should be enough to motivate this sad sack team. 

Release: Titans +6 over Pittsburgh.

"Coffee is For Closers"

After last night's thesis confirming win, now is the time to adhere to the tenets of modern sports handicapping. While there is no greater contrarian indicator than the "common man" theory, also referred to as "the golden goose" by respected handicappers everywhere, there are still several huge opportunities that are staring us right in the face. This weekend's SEC college football release of the decade is setting up to be the gaming equivalent of Haley's comet.  For all you pikers who jumped aboard the Texans last night, fear not, there is still time to recoup all your losses and then some!

Reds vs. Giants. Heading into the playoffs the concensus was that this series between the Reds and Giants would go five games. With both teams boasting superior starting pitching and veteran leadership, fans expected to be in for an fall classic. Unfortunately for the aforementioned fans, the Giants crapped themselves in games one and two and now are facing the unenviable task of trying to dig themselves out of an 0-2 hole.  Good luck with that.

Enter Gaming Rule 97 : "Fading road teams in close out games".  Although this rule fails to make our top ten indicators, it's still a proven winner. As with all rules, some will fail but the overwhelming majority continue to provide steady income generation for those who remain loyal by adhering to them. In addition to this rule you are also getting another major set up, which is dubbed "climate control".

The Release: Reds- 142 over the Giants. Out of respect for a proud Giants squad that has proven starting pitching, this line is only -142.  Here's the rub....After getting torpedoed in game two the Giants are now travelling to the midwest where they face a pumped up Reds team looking to close the series out in front of a "sea of red".  With temperatures in the low 40's by gametime, I can hardly imagine this is ideal for our friends by the bay. Furthermore, this game just has the feel of finality to it.  Without a headline starting pitcher with prior playoff success on the mound tonight, it would be irresponsible to take a flier on the Giants. Instead, cooler heads will prevail with our release of the Reds-142 tonight. This is a close out and game and Coffee is for Closers!

Bright Lights.....Big Cover?

Tonight's matchup between the 4-0 Houston Texans and the 2-2 New York Jets features two teams who epitomize what it means to be heading in the opposite direction.  Despite an average record, the Jets have been far from impressive, with the exception of their week one victory over the listless Buffalo Bills. Contrast this with the Houston Texans who have not only won every game but have done so in impressive fashion. Furthermore, the Texans are a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Jets are mere mortals at 2-2. What does this all mean for tonight's game?

Houston.  To quote legendary sports handicapper Mike C, "I've been inside the mind of the common man and it scares the hell out of me".  Is there a more beloved team in the NFL  than the Houston Texans?  Not even close. Right now the Texans are the most balanced team across the board and are the favorites to win the Superbowl. In addition to a superb defense, led by their all world pass rusher JJ Watt, the Texans also have a plethora of weapons on the offensive side of the ball.  After years of coming up short and battling injuries, quarterback Matt Schaub is finally realizing the results that were expected from him.

Jets.  To call this team "underappreciated" is an understatement. After losing their two most talented players on both sides of the ball, the expectations for the Jets could not be any lower. With quarterback Mark Sanchez seemingly being thrown under the bus daily, a weak offensive line, no explosive skill position players, and absolutely no pass rush, it is easy to see why everyone is so down on the Jets. Based on the numbers, the Jets should lose tonight's game something along the lines of 31-10.  Is there something we are all missing?

The Pick: Jets +9.  Gaming rule101: "this trend is Not your friend".  Tonight's game features one team that is loved by the Public (aka- the common man) in the Texans, versus another team who is seen as having no opportunity to even compete. When I polled ten of my friends, everyone of them said "Texans roll and will cover this game easily." Keep in mind that over half of these people are lifelong sports handicappers, who despite my warnings eschew such time tested rules and will take the team loved by the public. What are the odds that all of my ten friends winning tonight?  Could it happen? Sure but the odds suggest taking the home underdog with the 9 points. This won't be pretty but in the end, expect the ugliest of covers from the unloved Jets.

Wild Card Winner........

Upon first glance, tonight's matchup between the Orioles and the Rangers appears to be a mismatch.  However, hasn't this been the case all season? The O's are a squad that has fed off "the lack of respect card", so why would this game be any different?  Furthermore, why would the Orioles be starting Joe Saunders in such a pivital outing, while the Rangers are throwing out their ace Yu Darvish? 

When something looks this easy, it rarely is. Texas has the best lineup in all of baseball and are playing at home. In addition, the Rangers are a playoff seasoned team, while the Orioles are a complete cinderella story with a lineup comprised of names. Again, with such an obvious advantages why would anyone bet the Orioles?

Joe Saunders, while a disappointment this season, is a lefty and that should be enough to quell some of the left handed power in the Rangers lineup, specifically Josh Hamilton. If the Orioles can get a few strong innings from Saunders, that is a victory and they can shift the focus to their bullpen.  On the other hand, all the pressure is on the Rangers, a team that has collapsed at the end of this season. In situations like this I chose to focus on two major points: 1) which team has the momentum heading into the playoffs  and  2) which team has the most pressure on them to win now?  In both cases the answer is the  Texas Rangers. 

Tonight I will take the Orioles, who also possess a major managerial edge with Buck Showalter over Ron Washington.  While the two time defending AL Champion Rangers deserve all the respect in the world, I will take the heavy odds +185 and the Orioles to pull off the upset.