Thursday, November 1, 2012

Same Theme....Different Night?

After watching the Heat cruise past a gritty veteran Boston Celtics squad two nights ago,  I see an identical matchup tonight in the western conference between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. Like the Celtics, the Spurs are a saavy and well coached team that derives their leadership from veterans such as : Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginoboli. However, the Spurs have done an excellent job building around their aging superstars, as evidenced by last years league leading win total. 

Despite a disappointing performance in last years NBA finals, the Thunder have shown marked improvement during the past few years. Even without six man of the year award winner, James Harden, the Thunder are loaded with young talent. Last years western conference playoffs were less a competition than  a corination which saw the Thunder run all over their opponents. What does that all mean for tonight's home opener in San Antonio?

With the line currently sitting at Spurs -2, bookmakers are begging you to take the Thunder. From a historical point of view, it appears as though the Thunder are peaking while at best, the Spurs are holding their ground, defying father time. With seventy percent of the public backing the Thunder tonight, doesn't that mean smart money is stepping in and betting the Spurs? 

Spurs -2 over the Thunder. While I am failing to adhere to one of my core tenets (aging teams), there are several other factors at work here. The Spurs are a great regular season team, specifically at home. If they are not fresh in game one of their season, then that is a terrible omen going forward. In addition, the common man is completely decked out in Kevin Durant jerseys.....what are the odds of 70% of the dopes out there being right tonight?  Fade the concensus here and  take the Spurs.